Anticipatory governance and foresight during the mandate of the European Commission 2024–2029 |
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The portfolio of foresight and anticipatory governance of the European Commission (EC) in the 2024–2029 term has become more fragmented than in the 2019–2024 term. The imperative for foresight is obvious across multiple areas. In the previous term though, the responsibility for this domain rested with a single commissioner, namely, Maroš Šefčovič.
During the current EC term, the Commissioner responsible for intergenerational fairness in the EU is directly in charge of foresight. However, several other portfolios relating to resilience, preparedness for future crises, science and research are closely linked to the future dimension. The dimension of future thinking can also be seen in other portfolios such as that held by Andrius Kubilius, Commissioner for Defence and Space, responsible for drafting the White Paper on the future of European Defence.
It is also essential to note that the current EC ensures the continuity of previous anticipatory governance projects and initiatives alongside the implementation of new projects focused on the practical application of foresight.
The dominant topics in the EU political agenda — security, resilience, and crisis preparedness — are highly relevant to Lithuania. The EU and Lithuania have been going through a multifaceted crisis lately. Recent and ongoing crises include the war in Ukraine, migrant crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, energy price surges, trade restrictions imposed by China, and, most notably, the shift in US strategic priorities and values. Therefore, the role of foresight and anticipatory governance in the EU is not diminishing; rather, it takes a multifaceted form to cover many different topics. This review focuses on two key topics: intergenerational fairness and application of foresight for EU preparedness against threats.
The new EC is still in the early stages of its work. Therefore, fully delineating all areas where foresight has been or will be applied across the EU remains challenging. However, it is crucial for Lithuania to keep pace and prepare for potential future crises. EU institutions and experts increasingly recommend responding to crises based on anticipatory governance principles and strategies grounded in foresight.
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